Can we prevent another major pandemic?
While severe restrictions are being eliminated in all countries, we are still reeling from the shock of the 3-year pandemic. The official balance of loss of human life stands at more than 6.8 million deaths from covid-19, but according to WHO estimates, these figures were underestimated and could reach twice as many deaths.
These difficult years lived require meditating on the problems of our health systems, in addition to the significant tangible damage in all areas of human endeavor; especially in the social and economic aspect. Still for vulnerable populations, the virus represents a clear risk of contagion and it is estimated that 1 in 10 people are reporting chronic symptoms of “prolonged covid”.
It is taken for granted that covid-19 will not be the last zoonotic disease with the possibility of devastating the world’s population once again. According to the conclusions of a study published in the North American journal PNAS, the probability that a pandemic with an impact similar to covid-19 will emerge in the future is 2% in any year, which means that currently a person born in the 2000 has a 38% chance of experiencing a new pandemic in their lifetime.
Viruses that affect mammals and birds will always have the risk of progressing and infecting humans, which in an increasingly globalized world, where it is easy to travel from one country to another, the risk and speed of spread is much greater than what was observed in the past. As well as other underlying causes of the emergence of zoonotic diseases, such as deforestation, the wildlife trade and climate change. Our current lifestyle increases the risk of a new zoonotic threat.
Hence a key challenge is to identify which viruses pose the greatest risks to humans. If we can detect a new virus with the potential to affect humanity early, we would have more opportunities to apply all the necessary measures to prevent another pandemic, already mentioned in the scientific literature as “disease X”, a concept adopted by the WHO since 2018 that refers to a short list of priority diseases related to hypothetical and unknown pathogens that could cause a future epidemic.
Countries must avoid repeating past mistakes at all costs and we must all work together to strengthen health systems. In this way, having the ability to prevent, prepare for, and better respond to an eventual next pandemic. Improving coordination, global leadership and facilitating financing for the scope of vaccines to countries with disadvantaged economies, are some of the key strategies that must be implemented. The creation of a “global compact on pandemic preparedness”, similar to the global efforts that already exist in relation to climate change, should be considered. It is pertinent to bring to the discussion the application of artificial intelligence, technology that has already been tested and is effective in predictions and creation of statistical models in other areas.
A well-known philosopher said that “human beings are the only animal that stumbles twice with the same stone.” Learning from covid-19 is not only an option, but a duty.
Originally published at https://bitlysdowssl-aws.com on May 5, 2023.
